2 key Bitcoin trading metrics suggest BTC price has bottomed


Bitcoin (BTC) has been struggling to sustain the $47,500 support since the Dec. 4 crash, a movement that wiped out over $840 million in leveraged long futures contracts. The downside move came after the emergence of the Omicron variant of the Coronavirus and recent data showing U.S. inflation hitting a 40-year high. 

Bitcoin/USD price at FTX. Source: TradingView

While newcomers might have been scared by the 26% price correction over the past month, whales and avid investors like MicroStrategy added to their positions. On Dec. 9, MicroStrategy announced that they had acquired 1,434 Bitcoin, which increased their stake to 122,478 BTC.

How To Get Free Crypto  

According to some analysts, the rationale behind Bitcoin’s weakness was the contagion fear that Evergrande, a leading Chinese property developer, defaulted on its US dollar debt on Dec. 9. The $1.1 Bitcoin billion options expiry on Dec. 10 also could have played an important factor because bears pocketed a $300 million profit.

Margin traders are still extremely bullish

Margin trading allows investors to leverage their positions by borrowing stablecoins and using the proceeds to buy more cryptocurrency. When those savvy traders borrow Bitcoin, they use the coins as collateral for shorts, meaning they are betting on a price decrease.

That is why some analysts monitor the total lending amounts of Bitcoin and stablecoins to gain insight into whether investors are leaning bullish or bearish. Interestingly, Bitfinex margin traders slightly reduced their longs ahead of the Dec. 4 price crash.

Bitfinex BTC margin long/total percentage. Source: Coinglass

Notice that the indicator held a decent 90% favoring longs, meaning stablecoin borrowing was only 10% of the Bitfinex total. Furthermore, the margin longs recovered by 94% less than 24 hours after the price crash. This suggests that even if those investors were caught by surprise, most held their positions throughout the movement.

Coinbase Banner  

To confirm whether this movement was specific to the instrument, one should also analyze options markets. The 25% delta skew compares similar call (buy) and put (sell) options. The indicator will turn positive when “fear” is prevalent as the protective put options premium is higher than similar risk call options.

The opposite holds when market makers are bullish, causing the 25% delta skew to shift to the negative area. Readings between negative 8% and positive 8% are usually deemed neutral.

Deribit Bitcoin options 25% delta skew. Source: laevitas.ch

The 25% delta skew ranged near 6% ahead of the Dec. 4 Bitcoin crash, which is considered neutral. Over the next 3 days the options market makers and whales displayed moderate fear as the indicator peaked at 10%, but currently it stands at 3%.

The Bitfinex margin long metric and the options main risk metric show few signs of stress in derivatives markets. Considering that these markets are more often used by pro traders, one can begin to believe in the narrative that Bitcoin will claim a new all-time high in early 2022.

FreeBitcoin Banner  

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Go to Source
Author: Marcel Pechman

Recommended Crypto Services, Products and Strategies:

The first thing any crypto investor needs is is a reliable and secure Crypto Wallet.  Whether you’re looking for an online wallet, hardware wallet, desktop or mobile wallet, Crypto Renegade provides you with all the Best Crypto Wallets in each category.

Best Crypto Wallets Banner

When you’re ready to buy more crypto, or exchange your coins for others, Crypto Renegade’s list of the Best Crypto Exchanges has you covered.  The Crypto Exchanges recommended here offer everything from simplicity and convenience to advanced trading platforms and profit sharing. 

Best Crypto Exchanges Banner

If you want to learn more about the methods and tools that can be used to find Great Crypto Projects, then be sure to check out Crypto Renegade’s strategy for How To Find The Best Cryptocurrency.

Crypto Strategy Banner

For those people that don’t have any money to invest right now, or just want to understand the technology a bit more, you’ll definitely want to check out Crypto Renegade’s Free Crypto Strategy and start collecting Free Coins today!

Free Crypto Banner

What do you think about cryptocurrency? Do you have any questions about it? Be sure to leave a comment below.

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.