4 signs Bitcoin is starting its next bull run

As the chances of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) being approved rise, six-figure BTC price predictions are also becoming increasingly common, particularly now that the April 2024 halving is less than 180 days away.

BTC price historical patterns, halving

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price trends often exhibit cyclical behavior. Analysts have drawn parallels between the current price trajectory and historical patterns, suggesting a potential bullish cycle reminiscent of 2013 to 2017.

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BTC/USD 1-month chart (Bitcoin halving marked in yellow). Source: TradingView

Similarly, Bitcoin’s historical bull runs tend to follow four-year cycles, often spurred by events like the halving, which reduces the rate at which new BTC is created and earned by miners.

The next halving event will occur in April 2024, and traditionally, bull runs can start months before and continue until the price of Bitcoin reaches a new all-time high.

In fact, predictions that Bitcoin’s price will reach over $100,000 are becoming more commonplace now that the halving is less than 180 days away.

Related: Bitcoin halving 2024: Everything you need to know

But while some believe the upcoming halving will be the most important yet, others argue that it may play out differently this time around.

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Bitcoin accumulation: Not only whales

Significant stakeholders are showing confidence in Bitcoin by increasing their holdings. On-chain analytics have revealed a trend reversal, wherein major investors are trading stablecoins for more Bitcoin, which could potentially add momentum for a rally beyond $35,000.

More importantly, Bitcoin “whales,” or entities with at least 1,000 BTC, are showing signs of accumulation, which has historically preceded big rallies. 

Bitcoin: Point-in-time accumulation trend score. Source: Glassnode

Glassnodes data shows Bitcoin’s Accumulation Trend Score is currently 1 (chart above), indicating that on aggregate, larger whale entities, which are a big part of the network, are accumulating. 

Additionally, smaller entities have set accumulation records, breaking new highs throughout 2023.

Bitcoin ETF approval becoming likely

The discussion surrounding Bitcoin ETFs in the United States has been gaining momentum.

Bloomberg ETF analysts have upgraded the likelihood of a Bitcoin ETF approval to 65%. If approved, such an ETF could attract more institutional investors into the space and positively impact the cryptocurrency’s price​.

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A Bitcoin ETF is expected to trigger massive demand from institutions, according to EY.

Crypto market sentiment upswing

The cryptosphere’s Fear & Greed Index, a barometer of investor sentiment, registered a notable score of 72, hinting at prevailing “greed” in the market.

The Fear & Greed Index registered a score of 72, which represents “greed.” Source: Alternative.me

This shift in market sentiment has been a precursor to price rallies in the past and could be an indicator of an upcoming bull run. Interestingly, this is the highest level of “greed” since November 2021, when Bitcoin reached its all-time high price of $69,000.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Author: Allen Scott

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