90% Chance Bitcoin Hits New High By March 2025: Economist


In
a
forecast
issued
via
X
on
Friday,
Timothy
Peterson,
a
respected
network
economist
and
prominent
author
in
the
field
of
crypto
analytics,
predicted
a
near-certain
rise
of
the
Bitcoin
price
in
the
upcoming
8
months.
“There’s
a
90%
chance
Bitcoin
will
reach
a
new
ATH
before
March
2025,”
Peterson

proclaimed.

Peterson,
known
for
his
works
including
“Metcalfe’s
Law
as
a
Model
for
Bitcoin’s
Value,”
bases
his
forecast
on
the
analytical
framework
detailed
in
his
research
paper
titled
“Lowest
Price
Forward:
Why
Bitcoin’s
Price
is
Never
Looking
Back.”
This
paper,
first
published
in
2019
and
subsequently
revised,
introduces
an
innovative
approach
to
understanding
the
Bitcoin
price
trajectory
by
focusing
on
its
historical
lowest
prices,
referred
to
as
the
“Never
Look
Back
Price”
(NLB).
This
NLB
marks
the
last
instance
Bitcoin
was
traded
at
a
particular
price
point,
after
which
it
never
declined
to
that
level
again.

How To Get Free Crypto  


Related
Reading

The
methodology
Peterson
employs
involves
plotting
these
NLB
data
points
on
a
lognormal
scale
adjusted
by
what
he
calls
a
“square
root
time”
scale.
This
unconventional
metric
facilitates
a
deeper
insight
into
the
long-term
growth
patterns
of
Bitcoin,
comparing
them
effectively
with
the
diffusion
processes
observed
in
technology
adoption
across
other
domains.

Bitcoin
Adoption
Is
Key

Central
to
Peterson’s
analysis
is
Metcalfe’s
Law,
which
he
elaborates
as
“the
value
of
the
network
is
proportional
to
the
square
of
the
number
of
its
users.”
By
applying
this
principle
to
Bitcoin,
Peterson
posits
that
as
the
digital
currency’s
user
base
expands,
its
intrinsic
value
is
expected
to
increase
exponentially.
The
paper
details
the
use
of
a
“square
root
time”
model
to
align
traditional
time-value
money
concepts
with
the
non-linear
growth
rates
typical
in
network
economics,
presenting
a
compelling
case
for
Bitcoin’s

future
valuation
trajectories.

Bitcoin
NLB
|
Source:
X
@nsquaredvalue

Peterson’s
approach
notably
incorporates
elements
of
conservative
financial
analysis
by
emphasizing
the
lowest
historical
prices
of
Bitcoin.
“By
focusing
on
the
lowest
price,
the
analysis
inherently
adopts
a
conservative
stance,
underestimating
rather
than
overestimating
value,”
Peterson
notes,
which
helps
in
“minimizing
the
risk
of
overvaluation
and
ensures
that
predictions
do
not
overly
rely
on
optimistic
scenarios
which
might
not
materialize.”


Related
Reading

In
his
paper,
Peterson
also
addresses
potential
anomalies
and
market
manipulations,
which
can
distort
price
perceptions.
By
focusing
on
the
NLB,
the
analysis
filters
out
such
distortions,
offering
a
purer
view
of
Bitcoin’s
value
appreciation
unaffected
by
short-term
speculative
pressures
or
external
shocks
such
as
the

Coinbase Banner  

COVID-induced
market
anomalies
of
2021.

The
prediction
of
a

new
all-time
high
before
March
2025
reflects
a
broader
sentiment
of
confidence
in
the
sustained
growth
of
the
Bitcoin
network
by
Peterson.
As
adoption
curves
continue
to
rise
and
network
effects
further
entrench
the
value
of
Bitcoin,
the
forecast
is
not
merely
speculative
but
grounded
in
quantifiable
and
observed
historical
trends.

Peterson
concludes,
“As
long
as
adoption
continues,
Bitcoin’s
value

represented
by
its
NLB
price

will
go
up.
If
adoption
is
hindered,
then
the
price
will
stagnate
or
drop.”

At
press
time,
BTC
traded
at
$58,192.

BTC
struggles
to
overcome
the
200-day
EMA
(blue),
1-day
chart
|
Source:

BTCUSD
on
TradingView.com

Featured
image
created
with
DALL·E,
chart
from
TradingView.com

Go to Source
Author: Jake Simmons


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