The Senate prepares for the first day of trial over Trump’s impeachment but an acquittal is the likeliest outcome. | Source: Reuters/ Kevin Lamarque
- Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) futures point to new record highs on Thursday.
- Trump’s impeachment trial moves to the Senate today, but acquittal is overwhelmingly likely.
- Stock market has gained 9% since impeachment investigation started. Investors just “don’t care”
Donald Trump’s impeachment moves to the Senate today, making him only the third president in history to face trial. But you wouldn’t know it from the stock market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) hit record highs yesterday. And the futures market points to further highs today.
Traders have completely dismissed the threat of impeachment. As one financial analyst put it, investors just don’t care.
“Investors have virtually ignored what’s going on in Congress. They care about the economy. They care about profits. They care about trade, and if they thought the president was in serious jeopardy of losing his job, they’d care” – Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Wealth Advisors.
With a strong Republican majority in the Senate, the chances of impeachment are slim-to-zero. Democrats maintain that Trump abused his presidential power by pressuring Ukraine to investigate political rival Joe Biden.
Dow futures point to new record highs
The Dow Jones hit a historic new high yesterday as Trump signed a phase one trade deal with China. Traders kept the party going overnight, with Dow futures pointing to another record open on Thursday.
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) futures jumped 70 points in early trading Wednesday. Source: Yahoo Finance
S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq Composite futures were up 0.27% and 0.36% respectively. Bitcoin traded at $8,618.
Trump Impeachment? “It’s not gonna matter”
Members of the House of Representatives carried the articles of impeachment to the Senate last night in a ‘dramatic procession.’
Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi delivered a harsh rebuke and promised to hold the president to account:
The president violated his oath of office, undermined our national security, jeopardized the integrity of our elections.
But the news was drowned out by Trump’s trade deal ceremony with China’s Liu He. The president even used his speech to mock the impeachment trial., stating:
Some of the congressman may have a vote. It’s on the impeachment hoax. It’s not gonna matter because it’s going very well.
California Republican Kevin McCarthy echoed Trump’s words, calling the whole thing a “sad saga” based on the “weakest case.”
Even the American public are apathetic about the impeachment trial. Only 46% support Trump’s impeachment, a number that has declined every month according to Gallup.
An excerpt from the report read:
The percentage who support [impeachment] has dipped slightly each time Gallup has polled on the matter since October.
Dow Jones shrugs off threat of impeachment
The Dow Jones has rallied almost 9% since Nancy Pelosi announced the impeachment investigation in September. And it’s up 3% to record highs since the House voted to move proceedings to the Senate.
Dow Jones marked with timing of impeachment investigation launch (first circle) and House vote to impeach (second circle). Source: TradingView / CCN edits
This is consistent with Clinton’s impeachment process back in 1998 which saw stocks rise throughout the process. With such a high chance of acquittal in the Senate, the market simply shrugs off the threat.
The Senate will transform into an impeachment court today at 12 pm ET. The first opening statements will be heard next Tuesday, followed by the full force of Trump’s defense team. Republicans have promised to listen respectfully to both sides. But with a two-thirds majority required to impeach, an acquittal is almost certain.
This article was edited by Samburaj Das.
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Author: Ben Brown