History’s Warning: Is Ethereum Set For A Huge Plunge? Here Is What This Analyst Predicts

Ethereum (ETH) has maintained its spot as a leading altcoin. However, a recent analysis from Benjamin Cowen indicates that its journey, at least in comparison to Bitcoin (BTC), could have followed a better trajectory. 

In a space where past trends can sometimes indicate future outcomes, ETH’s price behavior, when viewed against BTC, offers a tale of potential concern.

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Ethereum Stumbling Blocks In 2023

A leading voice in the crypto analytical community, Benjamin Cowen, expressed his lack of enthusiasm for ETH’s performance in 2023 during a YouTube video. The ETH / BTC valuation, a critical metric for gauging relative performance, is the bedrock for his statements.

According to his observations from monthly charts, Cowen’s analysis primarily orbits around the ETH / Bitcoin valuation, which has trended downwards.

Ethereum/Bitcoin (ETH/BTC) price is moving on a downtrend on the 1-month chart. Source: ETH/BTC on TradingView.com

The analyst cites patterns from 2019, a pre-halving year, where ETH’s value relative to BTC fell significantly. That year alone, the ETH / BTC valuation declined by about 49%.

According to the analyst, fast forward to 2023, and ETH’s comparative valuation has already plummeted by 20.56%. If Cowen’s prediction and the patterns from 2019 hold any water, Ethereum could be staring down a deeper abyss.

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Yet, it’s not all bleak. Cowen remains measured, as he acknowledges the change the nature of “The Merge” brought on Ethereum’s ecosystem, believing it is a “game changer.” While Cowen wasn’t overly optimistic, the analyst refrained from forecasting ETH’s next moves, primarily due to the unpredictable ripple effects of The Merge.

The Merge: A Game-Changing Variable?

The Merge, a much-anticipated Ethereum upgrade, has already marked its influence on the ETH / BTC valuation. Ethereum’s weekly charts have been in a continuous downtrend following its implementation, creating further lows.

Ethereum/Bitcoin (ETH/BTC) price is moving on a downtrend on the 1-day chart. Source: ETH/BTC on TradingView.com

Cowen recognizes that The Merge, with its deflationary component, could mean ETH might not toe its historical line. This deflationary aspect could be Ethereum’s wild card, making its trajectory even more elusive.

Notably, while many parallels might be drawn between 2019 and 2023, such updates as The Merge means that Ethereum’s journey this year might still hold a few surprises.

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Meanwhile, the Ethereum price against the US dollar has seen quite a bearish trend, particularly over the past week. The second largest crypto by market capitalization has plunged nearly 5% in the past 7 days, bringing its price to fall below $1,600 with a current trading price of $1,569.

Ethereum (ETH) price is moving sideways on the 4-hour chart. Source: ETH/USDT on TradingView.com

Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView

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Author: Samuel Edyme

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