Most Important Bitcoin Indicator Nears Bullish Flip: $150,000 Soon?


In
a
recent

analysis,
James
Coutts,
Chief
Crypto
Analyst
at
Realvision,
signaled
a
potential
bullish
turn
in
Bitcoin’s
near
future,
attributing
the
forecasted
change
to
shifts
in
global
liquidity
measures,
specifically
the
Global
Money
Supply
(M2)
index
which
is
widely
seen
as
most
important
price
catalyst.
Coutts
detailed
this
anticipation
in
a
thread
on
X,
where
he
examined
the
relationship
between
major
economic
indicators
and
Bitcoin’s
price
cycles.

Global
Money
Supply
And
Its
Correlation
With
Bitcoin

Coutts’
analysis
begins
with
the
M2
money
aggregates,
which
consist
of
cash,
checking
deposits,
and
easily
convertible
near
money.
He
tracks
these
aggregates
across
the
12
largest
economies,
all
adjusted
to
USD.
This
measure,
he
suggests,
is
central
to
understanding
liquidity
flows
within
the
global
fiat,
credit-based
financial
system.
According
to
Coutts,
“The
money
stock
often
moves
in
one
direction,
with
significant
drops
like
those
seen
in
2022
being
rare
and
typically
brief.”

How To Get Free Crypto  


Related
Reading

Currently,
the

Global
M2
is
neutral,
but
Coutts
predicts
imminent
changes:
“There
is
a
sea
of
red
across
my
macro
&
liquidity
dashboard,
but
signs
are
emerging
that
this
is
about
to
change.
Global
M2
holds
the
key
for
the
next
leg
of
the
cycle
due
to
its
high
correlation
with
$BTC
bull
cycles.”

The
rate
of
change
in
M2
money
supply
is
more
critical
than
its
nominal
value.
Coutts
noted,
“The
chart
confirms
what
our
MSI
performance
table
suggests:
Bitcoin
usually
moves
with
shifts
in
M2
momentum.”
He
explained
that
despite
the
global
money
supply
MSI
indicator
being
in
an
uptrend,
the
momentum
remains
sluggish,
maintaining
a
Neutral
MSI.
For
a
shift
to
a
bullish
MSI
signal,
an
increase
in
momentum
is
necessary,
requiring
a
combination
of
dollar
depreciation,
credit
expansion,
and
increased
government
debt
issuance.

Coutts
pointed
out
the
crucial
role
of
credit
conditions,
as
evidenced
by
corporate
bond
spreads
(BBB/Baa)
compared
to
the
US
10-year

Treasury
yield,
which
have
historically
aligned
with
significant
inflections
in
Bitcoin’s
cycle.
“These
spreads
are
currently
narrowing,
indicating
that
corporations
are
managing
to
issue
and
roll
over
debt
despite
the
high
interest
rates
resulting
from
the
record
hikes
in
2022
and
2023,”
he
observed.

Coinbase Banner  


Related
Reading

Using
the
chameleon
trend
indicator
on
the
corporate
spread
index,
Coutts
suggests
a
strategy:
“Long
Bitcoin
when
the
index
shows
a
bearish
trend
(red)
and
stay
alert
for
potential
trend
reversals
(turning
green).”

The
Role
Of
the
Dollar
And
Future
Outlook

A
key
to
this
cycle,
according
to
Coutts,
is
the

behavior
of
the
DXY
(Dollar
Index),
which
measures
the
US
dollar
against
a
basket
of
foreign
currencies.
“The
Dollar
is
range-bound.
A
break
below
101
would
be
rocket
fuel
for
Bitcoin,”
he
asserted,
emphasizing
that
market
sentiment
on
liquidity
is
often
reflected
in
real-time
by
DXY
movements.

Coutts
also
touched
upon
the
US
debt
situation,
suggesting
that
without
a
conservative
shift
in
Congress
advocating
for
fiscal
responsibility,
more
deficit
spending
is
likely
on
the
horizon,
which
could
further
influence
liquidity
conditions
favorable
to
Bitcoin.

Coutts
concluded
with
a
note
of
caution
mixed
with
optimism:
“While
my
framework
needs
2/3
MSI
indicators
to
turn
Bullish
for
macro
headwinds
to
turn
into
tailwinds,
Bitcoin
price
action
will
probably
sniff
out
this
inflection
in
the
macro
before
most
indicators
react.”

FreeBitcoin Banner  

His
analysis
suggests
that
if
Bitcoin
breaks
above
its
all-time
highs,
it
would
be
unwise
to
bet
against
it,
anticipating
potential
climbs
towards
$150,000
in
this
cycle.
“The
DXY
holds
the
key
to
the
Bitcoin
cycle
as
it
prices
in
mkt
expectations
on
liquidity
in
real
time.
And
liquidity
is
coming.
Watch
the
101/102
level
on
DXY
If
that
breaks,
then
we
should
see
~$150k
btc
this
cycle,”
he

remarked.

At
press
time,
BTC
traded
at
$66,090.

BTC
price
surpasses
$66,000
again,
1-day
hart
|
Source:

BTCUSD
on
TradingView.com

Featured
image
created
with
DALL·E,
chart
from
TradingView.com

Go to Source
Author: Jake Simmons


Recommended Crypto Services, Products and Strategies:

The first thing any crypto investor needs is is a reliable and secure Crypto Wallet.  Whether you’re looking for an online wallet, hardware wallet, desktop or mobile wallet, Crypto Renegade provides you with all the Best Crypto Wallets in each category.

Best Crypto Wallets Banner

When you’re ready to buy more crypto, or exchange your coins for others, Crypto Renegade’s list of the Best Crypto Exchanges has you covered.  The Crypto Exchanges recommended here offer everything from simplicity and convenience to advanced trading platforms and profit sharing. 

Best Crypto Exchanges Banner

If you want to learn more about the methods and tools that can be used to find Great Crypto Projects, then be sure to check out Crypto Renegade’s strategy for How To Find The Best Cryptocurrency.

Crypto Strategy Banner

For those people that don’t have any money to invest right now, or just want to understand the technology a bit more, you’ll definitely want to check out Crypto Renegade’s Free Crypto Strategy and start collecting Free Coins today!

Free Crypto Banner

What do you think about cryptocurrency? Do you have any questions about it? Be sure to leave a comment below.

You May Also Like

More From Author

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.