Bitcoin (BTC) remains pinned below $27,000 and the recent weakness of the past few days has increased calls from analysts for a fall to the low $20,000 levels. While anything is possible, the bulls are unlikely to give up the $25,000 support without putting up a fight.
Glassnode’s lead on-chain analyst Checkmate said in his comments on May 24 that the Sell-side Risk Ratio metric suggests that “sellers are exhausted on both sides” and that indicates big moves “are coming.” The last time the Sell-side Risk Ratio was this low was in late 2015, which started the bull run that reached $20,000 in December 2017.
Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360
Another short-term positive is that market observers expect a debt ceiling deal to be reached and that has boosted the price of the United States equities markets on May 26. If the risk-on sentiment sustains, it could increase demand for Bitcoin and select altcoins.
What are the crucial resistance levels in Bitcoin and the major altcoins that need to be crossed for a sustained recovery to begin? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin price analysis
Bitcoin bounced off $25,871 on May 25, close to the strong support zone of $25,811 to $25,250. The bulls will try to push the price to the 20-day exponential moving average ($27,173).
BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
This level may again attract strong selling by the bears. If the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it will signal a negative sentiment where the bears are selling on rallies.
The crucial level to watch on the downside is $25,250. The bulls are expected to defend this support with all their might because if this level crumbles, the BTC/USDT pair may fall to $24,000 and eventually to $20,000.
On the contrary, if bulls pierce the overhead resistance at the 20-day EMA, the pair could rise to the resistance line. Buyers will have to overcome this barrier to indicate that the correction may be over.
Ether price analysis
Ether (ETH) has been trading inside a falling wedge pattern for the past several days. The bears tried to sink the price to the support line of the wedge on May 25 but the bulls aggressively purchased the dip as seen from the long tail on the candlestick.
ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bulls are trying to nudge and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA ($1,829). If they succeed, the ETH/USDT pair could rise to the resistance line. This is an important level to keep an eye on because a break above it will increase the possibility of a rally to $2,000.
If the price turns down from the current level or the resistance line, it will suggest that bears remain active at higher levels. That could keep the pair stuck inside the wedge for a few more days.
BNB price analysis
BNB (BNB) descended near the horizontal support of $300 on May 26 but the long tail on the candlestick shows buying by the bulls.
BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The 20-day EMA ($311) remains the key resistance to watch out for on the upside. If the price once again turns down from this level, it will increase the likelihood of a break below $300. If this level gives way, the BNB/USDT pair could slide to the support line of the descending channel pattern.
Contrarily, if the price turns up and breaks above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest solid demand at lower levels. The pair could then attempt a rally to the resistance line. Buyers will have to clear this hurdle to signal the start of a rally to $350.
XRP price analysis
The bears pulled XRP (XRP) below the 20-day EMA ($0.45) on May 24 and 25 but they could not sustain the lower levels. This shows that the sentiment has turned positive and traders are buying the dips to the 20-day EMA.
XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The price remains stuck between the moving averages, indicating indecision among the bulls and the bears. A break and close above the 50-day simple moving average ($0.47) will tilt the advantage in favor of the bulls. The XRP/USDT pair could then start its northward march to $0.54 and subsequently to $0.58.
Alternatively, if the price breaks and sustains below the 20-day EMA, it will indicate that bears are back in the game. The pair could then drop to the crucial support at $0.40.
Cardano price analysis
Cardano (ADA) is witnessing a tough tussle between the bulls and the bears near the uptrend line. The bears are trying to sink the price below the uptrend line but the bulls are fiercely defending the level.
ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The downsloping 20-day EMA ($0.37) and the relative strength index near 42, indicate that bears have the upper hand. Sellers will have to tug the price below $0.35 to start the next leg of the downward move to $0.30.
If bulls want to seize control, they will have to shove and sustain the ADA/USDT pair above the moving averages. That will open the doors for a possible rally to the overhead resistance at $0.44 where the bears may again mount a strong defense.
Dogecoin price analysis
The bears pulled Dogecoin (DOGE) below the $0.07 support on May 25 but the long tail on the candlestick shows that the bulls are trying to protect the level.
DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bulls will have to maintain their buying pressure and kick the price above the 20-day EMA ($0.07) if they want to prevent another assault by the bears. There is another hurdle at $0.08 but if that is crossed, the DOGE/USDT pair may start its journey to $0.10.
Instead, if the price turns down from the current level or the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that bears are selling on every minor rally. That will increase the likelihood of a break below $0.07 and the pair may slump to $0.06.
Polygon price analysis
Polygon (MATIC) turned down from the 20-day EMA ($0.89) on May 25 but the bears could not sustain the lower levels. Strong buying by the bulls sent the price above the 20-day EMA on May 26.
MATIC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
Buyers tried to extend the relief rally above the 50-day SMA ($0.98) but the long wick on the day’s candlestick shows that bears are active at higher levels. If buyers can flip the 20-day EMA into support, the MATIC/USDT pair may again try to reach the downtrend line.
On the contrary, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that supply exceeds demand. The pair could then drop to the vital support at $0.82. If this level gives way, a drop to $0.69 cannot be ruled out.
Related: Bitcoin reaches ‘decision point’ — 4 BTC price metrics to watch
Solana price analysis
The bulls managed to protect the $18.70 support on May 24 and 25 but they could not start a strong relief rally in Solana (SOL). That indicates a lack of demand at higher levels.
SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
Time is running out for the bulls. If they do not start a recovery quickly, the bears will try to strengthen their position further by yanking the price below the $18.70 support. If they do that, the SOL/USDT pair could start its southward journey toward $16.
The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the downtrend line. The pair could then rise to the 50-day SMA ($21.65). If this level is surmounted, it will suggest the start of an up-move toward $27.12.
Polkadot price analysis
Polkadot’s (DOT) shallow bounce off the strong support at $5.15 on May 25 and 26 shows a lack of aggressive buying by the bulls. The bears will try to use this opportunity and build upon their advantage.
DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
If the price slips below $5.15, the DOT/USDT pair could pick up momentum and tumble toward the next major support at $4.22.
If bulls want to prevent a decline, they will have to quickly drive the price above the 20-day EMA ($5.40). If they manage to do that, it will suggest that the buyers are trying to form a higher low at $5.15.
The pair could first rise to the 50-day SMA ($5.82) and subsequently dash toward the downtrend line. A break above this level will suggest that the corrective phase may be over.
Litecoin price analysis
Litecoin (LTC) has been range-bound between $96 and $75 for the past few days. The price action inside the range can be random and volatile.
LTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bulls started a recovery on May 25, which has reached the moving averages. If the price turns down from the current level, the next stop could be the uptrend line. If the price turns up from the uptrend line, it will suggest that the LTC/USDT pair is attempting to form a symmetrical triangle pattern.
If the price breaks above the moving averages, it will suggest that the short-term sentiment is turning positive. The pair could then attempt a rally to $96 where the bears may again mount a strong resistance.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
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Author: Rakesh Upadhyay