The Stock Market Is About to Plunge. Here’s What Will Save It


  • The stock market has several downside catalysts ahead.
  • A stock market crash won’t happen if the Fed can keep markets afloat.
  • Earnings and an additional stimulus package should help maintain this rally.

The post-Covid-19 stock market rally has been dubbed ‘the most hated rally in history’ because of the number of doubtful bears.

Jani Ziedins of the Cracked Market blog said it best last week:

If this market doesn’t want to breakdown, there is no arguing with it.

Ziedins says the bears’ arguments for why the market ‘should’ crash are valid, but obsessing about the negatives while the market focuses on the positives is a terrible strategy. 

How To Get Free Crypto  

Either [the stock market] does [go up] or it does not. Anyone trading ‘should’ is losing a lot of money right now.

On Thursday, the S&P 500 began a decline that saw the index finish the week 2% below its mid-week highs. Now the question is whether this decline will turn into a correction.

The S&P 500 started to decline at the end of the week. | Source: Yahoo Finance

It should, but it’s unlikely as long as these three key events play out as planned.

This Ad Keeps Us Going:

The Stock Market Depends on Stimulus

Donald Trump is expected to announce a stimulus package that will buoy the stock market. | Image: AP Photo/Evan Vucci, File

The lynchpin holding the stock market’s rally up is unwavering government support through stimulus spending.

Several government aid programs will expire this month. Now, Congress is mulling over extending unemployment benefits and sending out another stimulus payment. Without that stimulus, a sharp pullback in consumer spending is likely as incomes dry up. 

The Trump administration is widely expected to announce additional stimulus, which will keep the economy, and the stock market, afloat.

Coinbase Banner  

The Fed Could Eventually Buy Stocks

The Fed will need to reaffirm its commitment to supporting markets. | Source: AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin

A stimulus bill isn’t enough to keep the stock market on track. Investors will also be keeping an eye on the Federal Reserve for confirmation that the central bank won’t retreat anytime soon. The Fed has employed almost every tool in its toolbox; its only remaining options are bringing interest rates below zero or buying equities outright.

Negative rates have been hotly debated, with many pointing to their detrimental effect in Japan as a reason to avoid them. Buying equities, on the other hand, would be a direct injection of strength into the U.S. stock market.

This year, the Fed bought corporate bonds for the first time in history, buoying investor confidence. If the central bank shows a willingness to buy stocks as well, we could see the stock market rally continue even higher.

China Tension Remains in the Background

Tensions between the U.S. and China have been rising. | Source: REUTERS/Thomas Peter/File Photo

As the U.S. and China shut down each other’s embassies and double down on harsh rhetoric, it’s surprising investors aren’t more concerned. Last summer’s simmering tension between the two nations didn’t come close to the level of hostility seen in recent weeks, and the stock market plunged in response.

FreeBitcoin Banner  

The stock market responded to every development with China last summer. | Source: Yahoo Finance

Covid-19 has dominated the headlines, keeping investors more focused on case numbers and vaccine news. In a way, that’s a good thing as many believe the two sides will eventually work things out to avoid economic fallout. But if the tension between the two parties grows into something bigger, the stock market could be in for a rude awakening. 

The U.S. has blacklisted Huawei and put pressure on allies to do the same. According to Ed Yardeni from Yardeni research, if Beijing responds with similar actions, it would command the attention of U.S. markets.

It certainly looks like a Cold War has started, and it isn’t clear there is any path for de-escalating. At some point, China might up the ante by doing something similar to an American company, and that is when the market will pay attention.

Some of the stock market’s biggest players depend on China for growth—Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), for example, is heavily dependent on the Chinese EV market. 

Earnings On Tap

The final piece of the puzzle is earnings season, which hasn’t spooked investors so far.

Perhaps the most telling results will be those of stay-at-home stocks that have seen exponential growth. Many believe that the pandemic will cause a permanent shift in consumer behavior, boosting these stay-at-home names in the long-run.

Stay-at-home stocks’ earnings will be a crucial driver. | Source: Yahoo Finance

As Netflix’s results showed last week, some of the enthusiasm surrounding stay-at-home stocks has been overdone. Other popular names like Peloton (NASDAQ:PTON), Zoom Communications (NASDAQ:ZM), and Teledoc (NYSE:TDOC) need to meet expectations to prevent a mass exodus from the group. 

Disclaimer: This article represents the author’s opinion and should not be considered investment or trading advice from CCN.com. The author holds no investment position in the above-mentioned securities.

This Ad Keeps Us Going:

Last modified: July 26, 2020 6:06 PM UTC

Go to Source
Author: Laura Hoy


Recommended Crypto Services, Products and Strategies:

The first thing any crypto investor needs is is a reliable and secure Crypto Wallet.  Whether you’re looking for an online wallet, hardware wallet, desktop or mobile wallet, Crypto Renegade provides you with all the Best Crypto Wallets in each category.

Best Crypto Wallets Banner

When you’re ready to buy more crypto, or exchange your coins for others, Crypto Renegade’s list of the Best Crypto Exchanges has you covered.  The Crypto Exchanges recommended here offer everything from simplicity and convenience to advanced trading platforms and profit sharing. 

Best Crypto Exchanges Banner

If you want to learn more about the methods and tools that can be used to find Great Crypto Projects, then be sure to check out Crypto Renegade’s strategy for How To Find The Best Cryptocurrency.

Crypto Strategy Banner

For those people that don’t have any money to invest right now, or just want to understand the technology a bit more, you’ll definitely want to check out Crypto Renegade’s Free Crypto Strategy and start collecting Free Coins today!

Free Crypto Banner

What do you think about cryptocurrency? Do you have any questions about it? Be sure to leave a comment below.

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.