Bitcoin (BTC) has made a strong comeback in the month of July and is on track for its best monthly gains since October 2021. The sharp recovery in Bitcoin and several altcoins pushed the Crypto Fear and Greed Index to 42/100 on July 30, its highest level since April 6.
Investors seem to be making the most of the depressed levels in Bitcoin. Data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode shows that Bitcoin in exchange wallets has dropped to 2.4 million Bitcoin in July, down from the March 2020 levels of 3.15 million Bitcoin. This has sent the metric to its lowest level since July 2018.
Crypto market data daily view. Source: Coin360
Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone highlighted that the United States Federal Reserve’s indication to consider rate hikes on a “meeting by meeting basis” may lay the groundwork for Bitcoin to outperform most assets. He said that Bitcoin’s “risk vs. reward tilted favorably for one of the greatest bull markets in history.”
Could Bitcoin extend its rally in the short term and could that trigger buying in select altcoins? Let’s study the charts of the top-5 cryptocurrencies that may outperform in the near term.
Attempts by the bulls to sustain the price above $24,276 have failed in the past two days, indicating that the bears are defending the level with vigor. However, a minor positive is that the bulls have not ceded ground to the bears.
BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
This indicates that the bulls are not booking profits in a hurry as they expect a break above the overhead resistance. If the price breaks and closes above $24,276, the BTC/USDT pair could pick up momentum and rally toward $28,171. This level may act as a resistance but if bulls overcome the barrier, the next stop could be $32,000.
The upsloping 20-day exponential moving average ($22,480) and the relative strength index (RSI) in the positive territory indicate that bulls have the upper hand.
To invalidate this bullish view in the short term, the bears will have to sink the price below the 20-day EMA. That could clear the path for a possible drop to the 50-day simple moving average ($21,386) and then to the support line. A break below this level will suggest that bears are back in command.
BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
The 4-hour chart shows that bulls pushed the price above the overhead resistance of $24,276 but could not build upon the breakout. The bears pulled the price back below the level but are struggling to sink the pair below the 20-EMA. This indicates that bulls are buying on dips.
If the price rebounds off the current level, the bulls will have another shot at the overhead zone between $24,276 and $24,668. If this zone is scaled, the bullish momentum could pick up further. Conversely, if bears sink the price below the 20-EMA, the pair could drop to the 50-SMA.
Binance Coin (BNB) broke above the downtrend line on July 28, indicating a potential trend change. The up-move is facing resistance near the psychological level of $300 but a positive sign is that the buyers have not given up much ground. This suggests that the bulls are not hurrying to book profits.
BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The upsloping 20-day EMA ($263) and the RSI in the positive territory indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside. If buyers drive the price above $300, the BNB/USDT pair could resume its uptrend toward the overhead resistance at $350.
Alternatively, if the price turns down and breaks below $285, the pair could drop to the downtrend line. The 20-day EMA is placed close to this level, hence it becomes an important support to keep an eye on. If bears sink the price below the 20-day EMA, the pair could decline to the 50-day SMA ($239).
BNB/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
The pair turned down from the overhead resistance at $300 but the bulls are attempting to defend the 20-EMA. This indicates buying on dips. The bulls may again attempt to push the price above $300. If they manage to do that, the uptrend could resume. The pair could rise to $311 and then to $322.
This positive view could invalidate in the short term if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-EMA. If that happens, the pair could slide to the 50-SMA. The buyers are expected to defend this level aggressively because a break and close below it could open the doors for a decline to $239.
Uniswap (UNI) rebounded off the breakout level of $6.08 on July 26, indicating strong buying on dips. The up-move reached near the psychological resistance at $10 on July 28 where the bears are mounting a strong defense.
UNI/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The upsloping moving averages and the RSI in the positive territory indicate advantage to buyers. If the price rebounds off $8.11, it will suggest that buyers are trying to flip this level into support.
A strong rebound off $8.11 could open the doors for a retest at $10. The bulls will have to clear this overhead hurdle to indicate the start of the next leg of the up-move to $12.
Conversely, if the price turns down and breaks below $8.11, the UNI/USDT pair could drop to the 20-day EMA ($7.48). A break and close below this level will suggest that the bullish momentum has weakened.
UNI/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
The 4-hour chart shows that the bulls are attempting to defend the 20-EMA. If the price turns up from the current level and rises above $9.18, the pair could challenge the overhead resistance zone between $9.83 and $10.
Alternatively, if the price breaks below the 20-EMA, it will suggest that supply exceeds demand. The pair could then drop to the zone between $8.11 and the 50-SMA. This is an important zone for the bulls to defend because if they fail to do that, the short-term momentum could tilt in favor of the bears.
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After staying in a tight range for several days, Filecoin (FIL) broke out sharply on July 30, signaling a potential trend change. The RSI has risen into the overbought territory which is another sign that the downtrend may be ending.
FIL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The up-move may face resistance at the overhead resistance at $9.50 but if bulls do not give much ground from this level, the likelihood of a breakout increases. If that happens, the FIL/USDT pair could start its northward march toward $16, which may again act as a strong resistance.
If the price turns down from the current level and breaks back below $6.55, it will suggest that bears are active at higher levels. The pair may thereafter oscillate in a large range between $5 and $9.50 for a few days.
FIL/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
The pair picked up momentum after breaking above $6.40. The bears tried to stall the up-move at $8.89 but the bulls had other plans. They aggressively bought the dip and have pushed the price near the stiff overhead resistance at $9.50.
If the price turns down from the current level, the bulls will attempt to arrest the pullback at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $8.04. A strong bounce off this level will increase the possibility of a break above $9.50. If that happens, the pair could rally to $10.82. This bullish view could invalidate below $7.70.
Theta Network (THETA) has been consolidating between $1 and $1.55 for the past several days. The bulls tried to push the price above the overhead resistance on July 30 but the bears held their ground.
THETA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
If the price rebounds off the moving averages, the bulls will make another attempt to clear the overhead hurdle at $1.55. If they succeed, the THETA/USDT pair could start a new uptrend. The rally could first reach the pattern target of $2.10 and if this level is crossed, the rally may extend to $2.60.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price breaks below the moving averages, the bears will try to pull the pair to $1. Such a move could indicate that the range-bound action may continue for a few more days.
THETA/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
The 4-hour chart shows that the pair turned down from $1.50 and is struggling to rebound off the 20-EMA. This indicates that traders may be booking profits on every minor rise.
If the price sustains below the 20-EMA, the pair could drop to the 50-SMA. This is an important level for the bulls to defend because a break below it could sink the pair to $1.15.
Alternatively, if the price rebounds off the moving averages with strength, it will suggest that lower levels are attracting buyers. If bulls push the price above $1.42, a retest of the $1.50 to $1.55 resistance zone is possible.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
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Author: Rakesh Upadhyay