Former
President
Donald
Trump
holds
a
commanding
lead
over
Vice
President
Kamala
Harris
on
Polymarket
—
with
a
notable
edge
in
every
key
swing
state.
Polymarket
is
the
world’s
largest
prediction
market.
It
notably
forecast
that
President
Joe
Biden
would
drop
out
of
the
presidential
race
several
days
before
he
made
the
announcement.
As
of
July
23,
Trump
has
a
64%
chance
of
winning
the
presidency,
compared
to
Harris’s
34%
—
marking
a
1%
increase
for
Trump
and
a
significant
4%
rise
for
Harris
over
the
past
week.
However,
Trump’s
odds
have
consistently
been
above
50%
since
March,
showing
an
upward
trend,
while
Harris’s
recent
gains
have
narrowed
the
gap
slightly
but
remain
behind
the
former
president.
Swing
state
lead
The
swing
states,
crucial
for
any
presidential
hopeful,
show
a
clear
preference
for
Trump
and
the
Republican
party.
Based
on
Polymarket’s
latest
data:
-
Georgia:
Republicans
68%,
Democrats
32% -
Arizona:
Republicans
66%,
Democrats
34% -
Nevada:
Republicans
65%,
Democrats
35% -
Pennsylvania:
Republicans
59%,
Democrats
41% -
Wisconsin:
Republicans
55%,
Democrats
45% -
Michigan:
Republicans
53%,
Democrats
47%
The
numbers
indicate
that
Trump’s
support
is
solidifying
in
regions
that
have
historically
decided
the
outcome
of
presidential
elections. The
balance
of
power
projections
further
highlight
a
Republican
advantage:
-
Presidency:
64%
Republican -
Senate:
74%
Republican -
House:
53%
Democrat
The
market
also
predicts
the
potential
of
a
Republican
sweep
is
at
40%
likelihood,
while
a
Democratic
sweep
remains
less
likely
at
17%.
VP
nomination
Vice
President
Harris
remains
the
frontrunner
for
the
DNC’s
presidential
nomination
with
92%
odds,
while
former
First
Lady
Michelle
Obama
trails
significantly
with
only
5%
odds.
Hillary
Clinton
is
in
third
place
with
a
1%
chance.
The
forecast
for
the
Democratic
vice-presidential
nominee
shows
a
more
competitive
field,
with
Mark
Kelly
leading
at
35%,
followed
by
Josh
Shapiro
at
27%
and
Roy
Cooper
at
20%.
Meanwhile,
the
market
believes
there
is
a
53%
chance
of
Harris
winning
the
popular
vote
and
only
a
36%
chance
of
Democrats
winning
the
Presidency.
The
odds
for
a
Harris
vs.
Trump
debate
before
the
elections
are
also
falling,
standing
at
69%
as
of
press
time,
while
the
odds
of
President
Joe
Biden
finishing
his
term
have
risen
to
63%.
Mentioned
in
this
article
Go to Source
Author: Assad Jafri
