Quick Take

Bitcoin has primarily oscillated between the $60,000 and $70,000 range since late February, occasionally surpassing $70,000 to achieve its all-time high. However, it briefly dipped below $60,000 at the beginning of May.

The 200-day moving average (DMA) recently breached the $50,000 mark for the first time on May 6, with Bitcoin currently hovering around $61,000. This milestone is significant as the 200DMA is widely regarded as a pivotal indicator delineating bull and bear market cycles.

 

Technical Pricing Models, 200DMA: (Source: Glassnode)

In May 2021, Bitcoin dropped below the 200DMA level, which started the bear market. However, by January 2023, it had reclaimed this threshold, marking the commencement of the current bull run. A brief dip occurred below the 200DMA in October 2023, but it has remained a steadfast support since then.

In previous cycles, holding above the 200DMA was a bullish signal, while breaking down through it often presaged bearish momentum. Bitcoin’s ability to maintain prices over $50,443 could reinforce the uptrend.

Technical Pricing Models, 200DMA: July ’19 – May ’24: (Source: Glassnode)

Meanwhile, the short-term holder’s realized price is on the verge of breaking $60,000.

Short-Term Holder Realized Price and MVRV: (Source: Glassnode)