Trump’s potential return could catalyze major uptick in alt investments like Bitcoin – StanChart

A recent Standard Chartered report forecasts that a second term for Donald Trump could significantly boost Bitcoin and other digital assets as viable alternative investments.

The report investigates how US fiscal policies under a potential Trump administration could steer investors toward Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

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Meanwhile, the lender has also revised its outlook on Bitcoin’s price performance in the coming months and believes the flagship crypto saw its local bottom on May 1.

StanChart analyst Geoffrey Kendrick told CryptoSlate:

“I am happy to say I was too pessimistic about BTC’s break below 60k last week… Things are improving, and we have likely seen the low (at 56.5k on May 1).”

Kendrick added that the outlook revision was driven by a “less hawkish than feared FOMC and a friendly US jobs report,” — which have been enough to boost inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs following a record week of outflows.

Standard Chartered reaffirmed its predicted target of $150,000 per Bitcoin by the end of 2024, escalating to $200,000 by the end of 2025. The bullish targets hinge on various factors, including global fiscal conditions, the US electoral outcomes, and the evolving regulatory landscape affecting digital currencies.

Trump 2.0

According to the StanChart report, Trump’s anticipated presidency would likely promote a regulatory environment conducive to digital assets.

The report points to potential legislative changes, such as the approval of US spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for cryptocurrencies, marking a notable departure from current regulatory approaches. These moves would increase accessibility and legitimacy for Bitcoin and similar assets, potentially attracting a broader base of institutional and retail investors.

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Highlighting fiscal patterns from Trump’s previous term, the report noted that foreign official US Treasury (UST) buyers significantly scaled back their holdings, with net selling averaging $207 billion annually.

In comparison, during Biden’s term, this figure dropped to an average of $55 billion per year. The report speculates that Trump’s re-election could intensify these trends, promoting a faster shift from US Treasuries to alternative financial assets such as Bitcoin and gold.

Digital gold?

The report also discussed Bitcoin in comparison to gold, positioning the flagship crypto as a non-traditional financial asset with similarities to how gold functions as a hedge.

It explained that Bitcoin, like gold, tends to perform well as a hedge against traditional financial assets during times of banking stress or when central banks engage in significant monetary expansion. For example, the price of Bitcoin rose by $10,000 following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March 2023, showcasing its ability to act as a safe haven during financial crises.

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However, the report also noted a key difference between Bitcoin and gold — BTC does not perform as well during periods of heightened geopolitical risk, unlike gold, which traditionally maintains or increases its value during such times.

The report partly attributed the difference to Bitcoin’s role as an extension of the tech sector, which can be more volatile and sensitive to global tensions.

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Author: Assad Jafri

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